Peng Liao, Zhengling Qi, Runzhe Wan, Predrag Klasnja, Susan A Murphy
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BATCH POLICY LEARNING IN AVERAGE REWARD MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES.
We consider the batch (off-line) policy learning problem in the infinite horizon Markov Decision Process. Motivated by mobile health applications, we focus on learning a policy that maximizes the long-term average reward. We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average reward and show that it achieves semiparametric efficiency. Further we develop an optimization algorithm to compute the optimal policy in a parameterized stochastic policy class. The performance of the estimated policy is measured by the difference between the optimal average reward in the policy class and the average reward of the estimated policy and we establish a finite-sample regret guarantee. The performance of the method is illustrated by simulation studies and an analysis of a mobile health study promoting physical activity.
期刊介绍:
The Annals of Statistics aim to publish research papers of highest quality reflecting the many facets of contemporary statistics. Primary emphasis is placed on importance and originality, not on formalism. The journal aims to cover all areas of statistics, especially mathematical statistics and applied & interdisciplinary statistics. Of course many of the best papers will touch on more than one of these general areas, because the discipline of statistics has deep roots in mathematics, and in substantive scientific fields.