{"title":"经验法则:在相关流上并行运行的许多类型的控制图的虚警运行长度是渐近独立的","authors":"M. Pollak","doi":"10.1214/20-AOS1968","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Consider a process that produces a series of independent identically distributed vectors. A change in an underlying state may become manifest in a modification of one or more of the marginal distributions. Often, the dependence structure between coordinates is unknown, impeding surveillance based on the joint distribution. A popular approach is to construct control charts for each coordinate separately and raise an alarm the first time any (or some) of the control charts signals. The difficulty is obtaining an expression for the overall average run length to false alarm (ARL2FA).We argue that despite the dependence structure, when the process is in control, for large ARLs to false alarm, run lengths of many types of control charts run in parallel are asymptotically independent. Furthermore, often, in-control run lengths are asymptotically exponentially distributed, enabling uncomplicated asymptotic expressions for the ARL2FA.We prove this assertion for certain Cusum and Shiryaev–Roberts-type control charts and illustrate it by simulations.","PeriodicalId":8032,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Statistics","volume":"49 1","pages":"557-567"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A rule of thumb: Run lengths to false alarm of many types of control charts run in parallel on dependent streams are asymptotically independent\",\"authors\":\"M. Pollak\",\"doi\":\"10.1214/20-AOS1968\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Consider a process that produces a series of independent identically distributed vectors. A change in an underlying state may become manifest in a modification of one or more of the marginal distributions. Often, the dependence structure between coordinates is unknown, impeding surveillance based on the joint distribution. A popular approach is to construct control charts for each coordinate separately and raise an alarm the first time any (or some) of the control charts signals. The difficulty is obtaining an expression for the overall average run length to false alarm (ARL2FA).We argue that despite the dependence structure, when the process is in control, for large ARLs to false alarm, run lengths of many types of control charts run in parallel are asymptotically independent. Furthermore, often, in-control run lengths are asymptotically exponentially distributed, enabling uncomplicated asymptotic expressions for the ARL2FA.We prove this assertion for certain Cusum and Shiryaev–Roberts-type control charts and illustrate it by simulations.\",\"PeriodicalId\":8032,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annals of Statistics\",\"volume\":\"49 1\",\"pages\":\"557-567\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-02-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annals of Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOS1968\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOS1968","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A rule of thumb: Run lengths to false alarm of many types of control charts run in parallel on dependent streams are asymptotically independent
Consider a process that produces a series of independent identically distributed vectors. A change in an underlying state may become manifest in a modification of one or more of the marginal distributions. Often, the dependence structure between coordinates is unknown, impeding surveillance based on the joint distribution. A popular approach is to construct control charts for each coordinate separately and raise an alarm the first time any (or some) of the control charts signals. The difficulty is obtaining an expression for the overall average run length to false alarm (ARL2FA).We argue that despite the dependence structure, when the process is in control, for large ARLs to false alarm, run lengths of many types of control charts run in parallel are asymptotically independent. Furthermore, often, in-control run lengths are asymptotically exponentially distributed, enabling uncomplicated asymptotic expressions for the ARL2FA.We prove this assertion for certain Cusum and Shiryaev–Roberts-type control charts and illustrate it by simulations.
期刊介绍:
The Annals of Statistics aim to publish research papers of highest quality reflecting the many facets of contemporary statistics. Primary emphasis is placed on importance and originality, not on formalism. The journal aims to cover all areas of statistics, especially mathematical statistics and applied & interdisciplinary statistics. Of course many of the best papers will touch on more than one of these general areas, because the discipline of statistics has deep roots in mathematics, and in substantive scientific fields.