The dark side of up-selling promotions: Evidence from an analysis of cross-brand purchase behavior☆

This research investigates how up- and down-selling promotions affect customers’ cross-brand purchasing and churn behavior at a multi-brand retailer. We employ a hidden Markov model that accounts for the dynamics of customers’ latent brand preferences and attrition and captures the resulting purchase behavior in response to promotional offers. Using data on coupon promotions and purchase transactions from an online retailer, we find that coupons for a higher-end brand increase customers’ likelihood of purchasing the brand. While this suggests that the retailer can increase its short-term revenues by sending coupons for the higher-end brand to customers of the lower-end brand, we find that customers up-sold via coupons are more likely to switch back to the lower-end brand, in comparison to other customers of the higher-end brand, limiting the positive effect of up-selling promotions in the long term. Moreover, lower-end brand customers’ promotion-induced brand switching leads to their increased attrition from the retailer, which negatively affects long-term purchase behavior and revenues. In contrast, when triggered by down-selling coupons, customers’ brand switching does not impact their attrition. Based on these findings, we demonstrate how our model-based approach can assist marketers’ multi-brand couponing decisions.