The Subjective Value of Postsecondary Education in the Time of COVID: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Panel

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has affected virtually all aspects of US life. It has disrupted education and employment and may have shifted the trade-off between employment and higher education in prospective students’ minds. The pandemic may have especially disrupted the educational trajectories of traditionally underserved postsecondary students, such as those from low-income and/or racially minoritized backgrounds, who often work while pursuing their degrees. If the pandemic has affected current and potential students’ subjective value of postsecondary education relative to its often-substantial costs, it may have affected their aspirations to enroll. Such effects may have lasting impacts on postsecondary enrollment and attainment, so are essential considerations. We provide suggestive evidence of such effects using data from the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative panel of US households. Using multilevel (respondent within household) ordered logistic models, we find that the pandemic has increased the subjective valuation of postsecondary education for non-white respondents relative to white respondents, for respondents in the South and West relative to the Northeast and Midwest, and over time for households with postsecondary students. We find no evidence for pandemic-driven differences in the subjective value of postsecondary education by household income level.