不确定条件下的推理:随机转移问题的最大似然启发式

IF 2.2 Q3 Social Sciences

Journal of Statistics Education Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI:10.1080/10691898.2020.1781003

Yael Tal, Ida Kukliansky

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本研究的目的是探讨在概率任务中需要比较两个概率的判断和推理，无论是否引入额外的不确定性程度。与具有附加不确定性条件的任务相关的推理在以前的研究中没有讨论过。在本研究中，66名本科生使用了不确定条件下的分析方法和启发式方法来完成任务。研究结果表明，他们专注于最可能发生的事件，并基于该事件得出预测，在某些情况下，这导致他们回答错误。教育意义包括一种循序渐进的方法来培养学生更好的直觉，帮助他们在未来解决类似的问题。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Maximum Likelihood Heuristic in a Problem With a Random Transfer

Abstract The aim of this study is to explore the judgments and reasoning in probabilistic tasks that require comparing two probabilities either with or without introducing an additional degree of uncertainty. The reasoning associated with the task having an additional condition of uncertainty has not been discussed in previous studies. The 66 undergraduate students, participants in this study, used an analytic process for the task without an additional condition of uncertainty and a heuristic for the task with it. The findings show that they focused on the most likely event and derived a prediction based on this event that, in some cases, led them to answer incorrectly. The educational implications include a gradual method for developing better intuition for the students to help them tackle similar problems in the future.

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来源期刊

Journal of Statistics Education EDUCATION, SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES-

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： The "Datasets and Stories" department of the Journal of Statistics Education provides a forum for exchanging interesting datasets and discussing ways they can be used effectively in teaching statistics. This section of JSE is described fully in the article "Datasets and Stories: Introduction and Guidelines" by Robin H. Lock and Tim Arnold (1993). The Journal of Statistics Education maintains a Data Archive that contains the datasets described in "Datasets and Stories" articles, as well as additional datasets useful to statistics teachers. Lock and Arnold (1993) describe several criteria that will be considered before datasets are placed in the JSE Data Archive.