连续性、历史与身份:为什么奉奉·马科斯赢得2022年菲律宾总统选举

IF 1.4 4区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Pacific Affairs Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI:10.5509/202396185

Dean C. Dulay, A. Hicken, A. Menon, Ronald Holmes

{"title":"连续性、历史与身份:为什么奉奉·马科斯赢得2022年菲律宾总统选举","authors":"Dean C. Dulay, A. Hicken, A. Menon, Ronald Holmes","doi":"10.5509/202396185","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59 percent of the vote to become president of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of di erent theories have been proposed, in an attempt to\n explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that, a) support for former President Rodrigo Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos\n and martial law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong\n Marcos won the election.","PeriodicalId":47041,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Affairs","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Continuity, History, and Identity: Why Bongbong Marcos Won the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election\",\"authors\":\"Dean C. Dulay, A. Hicken, A. Menon, Ronald Holmes\",\"doi\":\"10.5509/202396185\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59 percent of the vote to become president of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of di erent theories have been proposed, in an attempt to\\n explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that, a) support for former President Rodrigo Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos\\n and martial law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong\\n Marcos won the election.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47041,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pacific Affairs\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pacific Affairs\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5509/202396185\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AREA STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pacific Affairs","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5509/202396185","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

摘要

2022年5月，邦邦·马科斯赢得了59%的选票，成为菲律宾总统。在某种程度上，他的胜利令菲律宾政治学者和分析人士感到震惊。因此，人们提出了大量不同的理论，试图解释马科斯获胜的原因。在本文中，我们使用具有全国代表性的调查数据来探讨哪些因素预测（而不是预测）马科斯的投票意向。我们发现，a）对前总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特的支持，b）对已故总统费迪南德·马科斯和戒严令的积极看法，以及c）种族（语言）认同是投票给邦邦·马科斯的有力预测因素。另一方面，年龄、教育程度和收入都不是。因此，基于连续性、联盟、历史和身份的理论在邦邦·马科斯为什么赢得选举的问题上提供了最大的影响力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Continuity, History, and Identity: Why Bongbong Marcos Won the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election

In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59 percent of the vote to become president of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of di erent theories have been proposed, in an attempt to explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that, a) support for former President Rodrigo Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos and martial law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong Marcos won the election.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Pacific Affairs AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Pacific Affairs has, over the years, celebrated and fostered a community of scholars and people active in the life of Asia and the Pacific. It has published scholarly articles of contemporary significance on Asia and the Pacific since 1928. Its initial incarnation from 1926 to 1928 was as a newsletter for the Institute of Pacific Relations (IPR), but since May 1928, it has been published continuously as a quarterly under the same name. The IPR was a collaborative organization established in 1925 by leaders from several YMCA branches in the Asia Pacific, to “study the conditions of the Pacific people with a view to the improvement of their mutual relations.”