与气候相关的社会灾难性野火升级

IF 45.8 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI:10.1126/science.adr5127

Calum X. Cunningham, John T. Abatzoglou, Crystal A. Kolden, Grant J. Williamson, Markus Steuer, David M. J. S. Bowman

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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化和土地管理不善正在造成越来越容易发生火灾的建筑环境和自然环境。然而，尽管火灾季节恶化，但全球缺乏证据表明野火在社会和经济上造成灾难性后果的趋势，部分原因是系统记录稀少。利用44年的数据集（1980年至2023年），我们分析了与最致命和最昂贵的野火相关的分布、趋势和气候条件。在此期间，灾难性的野火在全球范围内发生，但主要集中在地中海和温带针叶树生物群落。在每日频繁发生的火灾与富裕、人口稠密的地区相交的地方，灾害风险最高。自2015年以来，经济灾难急剧增加，200起最具破坏性的事件中有43%发生在过去十年。灾害与日益极端的气候条件同时发生，凸显出迫切需要适应一个更容易发生火灾的世界。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires

Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially and economically disastrous wildfires, partly due to sparse systematic records. Using a 44-year dataset (1980 to 2023) we analyze the distribution, trends, and climatic conditions connected with the most lethal and costly wildfires. Disastrous wildfires occurred globally over this period but were concentrated in the Mediterranean and temperate conifer biomes. Disaster risk was highest where highly energetic daily fire events intersected affluent, populated areas. Economic disasters increased sharply from 2015 onward, with 43% of the 200 most damaging events occurring in the last decade. Disasters coincided with increasingly extreme climatic conditions, highlighting the urgent need to adapt to a more fire-prone world.

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来源期刊

Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

61.10

自引率

0.90%

发文量

审稿时长

2.1 months

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