Probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment of chloramphenicol residues in broiler chicken meat

This study is the first in the Caucasus region to investigate the presence of chloramphenicol (CAP) residues in broiler chicken meat sold in Yerevan, Armenia, and to assess potential health risks. A food frequency questionnaire was distributed among 1,040 adults in Yerevan to determine chicken consumption patterns. Respondents were then classified into 3 clusters using K-means clustering. 30 broiler chicken meat samples, including 18 local and 12 imported products, were collected and analyzed for CAP residues using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) and High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). Potential health risks were evaluated by calculating Daily Intake (DI) and Margin of Exposure (MOE) for each consumer cluster, using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Due to CAP genotoxicity, an MOE below 10,000 was considered indicative of a potential health concern. CAP residues were detected in 60% of the broiler chicken meat samples, with higher detection rates and concentrations in imported products compared to local ones. Both deterministic and probabilistic analyses, including Monte Carlo simulations, indicated that CAP residues in chicken meat is unlikely to pose a health risk to the studied population. While exposure through chicken meat alone does not raise immediate concern, available literature indicates that CAP exposure may also occur through the consumption of other food products, calling for a comprehensive risk assessment. These findings highlight the need of stricter monitoring and regulation of CAP residues from farm to market, especially in countries like Armenia, where chicken meat is a major dietary component. The study also emphasizes the importance of using comprehensive risk assessment approaches for veterinary drug residues, also by combining deterministic and probabilistic methods.