Advancing Climate Resilience in Agri-Food Systems: The Role of Green Innovation and Strategic Policy Interventions

Agri-food systems are integral to sustainable development, climate change mitigation, and food security; however, they are also responsible for 19%–29% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Without targeted interventions, emissions from these systems risk escalating climate vulnerability and impeding sustainable progress. This study examines strategies for transforming agri-food systems toward low-carbon, circular bioeconomy models through green innovation and policy support, specifically within the contexts of the OECD and potentially adaptable frameworks for the Global South. Using a quantile autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we analyze the impacts of environmental innovation, government agricultural spending, total factor productivity, and population density on climate vulnerability across OECD countries, with implications for scalability in emerging economies. Results show that long-term increases in environmental patents, government agricultural expenditures, and total factor productivity significantly reduce climate vulnerability. Additionally, a U-shaped relationship between agricultural CO₂ emissions and food vulnerability is identified, indicating that while initial emissions reduction may mitigate vulnerability, sustained emissions intensify long-term risks. These findings emphasize the role of sustainable agricultural practices and robust policy frameworks in fostering climate resilience and economic sustainability. This research provides an evidence-based assessment of environmental impacts within agri-food systems, presenting actionable policy insights for advancing a circular bioeconomy, especially relevant for sustainable transformation in the Global South.