Impact of exogenous events on the demand for on-demand ridepooling in Hamburg

On-demand ridepooling, as a flexible and efficient mobility solution, could complement traditional public transport during periods of fluctuating demand induced by exogenous events such as concerts, festivals, sporting events, trade fairs, holidays, strikes, and weather conditions. This study investigates the impact of exogenous events on the demand for MOIA’s ridepooling service in Hamburg, the variability in demand among user groups, and spatial zones based on one and a half years of request and ridership data. The study employs temporal and spatiotemporal regression models, quantifying the impact of exogenous events on overall daily demand and different user groups. Findings indicate that ridepooling demand is susceptible to certain exogenous events while showing no effect on others. However, the interaction between event location and event timing has a far greater impact on demand than location alone and is larger than most other spatially related variables. The demand for the same event can also vary significantly in magnitude and direction across different user groups. Increased demand for all user groups results from public transport strikes, concerts at the Trabrennbahn, and outdoor events. Strikes in metro and bus operations show the strongest impact of all, with baseline demand increasing up to four-fold. Varying impacts depending on the user group result from UEFA EURO 2024 matches, holidays, concerts, trade fairs, and weather. These findings can assist ridepooling operators in optimizing their service and offer valuable insights for transport planners and policymakers to enhance network resilience.