Survey Questions on Quantity and Frequency Are Differentially Effective by Age in Predicting Future Alcohol Consumption.

Introduction: Cross sectional research has demonstrated that screening tool questions on frequency of alcohol consumption are a better predictor of dependence and harmful drinking in younger adults; questions about quantity per occasion are a better predictor in older adults. The aim of this study is to see if this relationship also holds longitudinally.

Methods: A total of 9076 respondents aged 15 and over completed at least two waves of the longitudinal annual Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey 10 years apart between 2001-2010 and 2012-2020. Standardised scores from responses to questions on drinking quantity and frequency in the first survey were used to predict consumption 10 years later in groups stratified by age.

Results: Frequency of consumption was a significantly better predictor of future consumption than quantity in younger drinkers (aged < 36; β = 9.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.6-10.0), than older drinkers (aged > 49; β = 5.1, 95% CI 4.8-5.5) while quantity was a better predictor in older drinkers (β = 8.2, 95% CI 7.2-9.3) than younger drinkers (β = 3.4, 95% CI 3.1-3.7).

Discussion and conclusions: Some commonly used screening items, such as drinking quantity and frequency, are differentially effective at identifying future heavy drinkers between age groups. Development of age-specific screening tools could potentially lead to more accurate identification of people who could benefit from intervention to reduce their alcohol consumption.