Changes in Fertility Intentions and Influencing Factors Among the Childbearing-Age Population Under the Three-Child Policy: Evidence From Gansu Province, China

China's population development faces low birth rates, prompting the introduction of a three-child policy that impacts the fertility intentions of the childbearing-age population. However, research on fertility intention is predominantly concentrated in the developed eastern regions, with limited studies focusing on the socioeconomic dynamics in the less-represented northwest, such as Gansu Province. This region, with its unique socioeconomic challenges, presents a critical case for understanding fertility intentions in China's current policy context. Based on cross-sectional data from the 2022 fertility intention survey of 79270 childbearing-age individuals in Gansu Province, the fertility intention and influencing factors of the childbearing-age population are analyzed. The study found that the fertility intention of people of childbearing-age is influenced by a combination of economic, social and demographic factors, among which economic factors are the most critical. Middle-income groups exhibit stronger fertility intentions, while both high- and low-income groups show reduced procreative preferences due to career priorities and economic constraints, respectively. Improved education levels and enhanced social security lead childbearing-age populations to prioritize personal development; however, women's fertility intentions are constrained by unemployment risks. Contrary to previous studies, this study reveals that fertility intentions increase with age, suggesting that middle-aged individuals with stable careers and incomes may represent a key target for policy interventions. Additionally, factors such as gender, education level, workplace, and marital status significantly influence fertility intentions.