The Case of Pre-24 February 2022 Ukrainian Migrants and War Refugees in Poland: How War Affects Fertility Beliefs and Intentions

This article deepens the understanding of the effects of war as an uncertain and crisis event on fertility beliefs and intentions. It addresses the less-explored region of Central Eastern Europe and is one of the few qualitative studies in this field. Based on 24 in-depth interviews (IDIs), we analyze the fertility beliefs and intentions of pre-24 February 2022 migrants and war refugees from Ukraine in Poland and the impact of the Russian invasion, restrictions on the movement of men from Ukraine, and war refugeehood on their family life. We combine the heuristic frame of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) with the narratives of the future framework and terror management theory. Our findings show the need to focus on two elements of TPB to deeper understand fertility in a war context: (1) beliefs about the importance of having a child and (2) the opportunity to have a child (as a part of control). These two elements, as the Ukrainian case shows, war transforms. The analysis also reveals the complexity of neutral narratives of the future and changing fertility intentions, with the identified narratives and conditions for childbearing being useful for formulating policies addressing the demographic losses of the Ukrainian state.