The impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax policy on cases of diabetes, depression, heart attacks, hypertension, and stroke in the 35 years and 40 years cohorts of South Africa

In 2018, South Africa became the first African country to implement a sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) tax policy. This study evaluates its impact on diabetes, depression, heart attacks, hypertension, and stroke among South Africans aged 35 and 40. Data from 2016 to 2017 (control group) and 2018–2021 (treatment group) were analysed using an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation model. Results indicate a 16% reduction in diabetes and 23% reduction in depression for the 35-year cohort, while the 40-year cohort saw 6% and 16% decreases, respectively. Heart attacks dropped by 36% and 12%, hypertension by 30% and 10%, and strokes by 16% and 6% in the respective cohorts. The effects were more significant in men and in the younger 35-year cohort, particularly among Black African and Mixed-Race groups, and people from low socio-economic backgrounds. Overall, the policy effectively reduces these health issues, suggesting that higher tax rates could enhance brain health outcomes.