Using group-based trajectory modeling to test theoretically driven hypotheses about relationship development

Several theoretical frameworks have been used to understand variability in relationship functioning, particularly why some couples experience declines and others do not. Although methodological innovations, specifically Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (GBTM), could be used to test these theories, work using this method has been largely exploratory in nature. The current article highlights the importance of generating refutable hypotheses when using GBTM approaches to evaluate specific theoretical frameworks (i.e., the enduring dynamics model, emergent distress model, gradual disillusionment model, vulnerability-stress-adaptation model, and relational turbulence theory). Using these prominent theories in the relationship development literature, we depict how scholars can generate specific, refutable hypotheses within a GBTM approach, therefore connecting theoretical tenets with the output GBTM approaches produce and providing critically needed theory refinement and expansion. We conclude with a discussion on how future scholarship in family science could better bridge the gap between theory and GBTM to strengthen the field's theoretical foundations.