An Inverted-U, an Elephant or Neither? Exploring the Link Between Migrant Integration Policies and Pro-Immigrant Sentiment

The increasing inflow of migrants from outside Europe has intensified efforts to promote social and economic inclusion while reinforcing social cohesion. These efforts are essential for fostering a fair society, which, in turn, supports a dynamic economy that benefits everyone. In this paper, we examine the relationship between integration policies and pro-immigrant sentiment, which is regarded as a key-factor in facilitating migrant integration. Our analysis draws on data from the European Social Survey (Round 10), which provides insights into natives' attitudes towards immigrants across a wide range of European countries during the period from September 2020 to August 2022. The empirical design is based on an extended version of the proportional-odds cumulative logit model to estimate potential nonlinear effects of explanatory variables in determining pro-immigrant sentiment. Additionally, we account for potential endogeneity between pro-immigrant attitudes and immigrant inflows. Our findings reveal a bell-shaped relationship between migrant integration policies and pro-immigrant sentiment. This suggests that countries transitioning toward more inclusive policies tend to experience a rise in positive attitudes toward immigrants. In contrast, in countries where integration policies are already highly inclusive, further expansion may be associated with a decline in support. This bell-shaped pattern also emerges when examining public perceptions of grants' contributions to the economy of host countries. The relationship becomes convex when focusing on views regarding the cultural impact of migrants. These distinct patterns carry important and differentiated policy implications, highlighting the need for context-specific strategies in advancing integration.