1992年至2021年脑出血发病率的时间趋势：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的年龄-时期队列分析

IF 12.4 1区医学 Q1 CELL BIOLOGY

Ageing Research Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI:10.1016/j.arr.2025.102789

Yunyi Hao , Xue Xia , Jinqiao Zhu , Weizi Yang , Xingquan Zhao , Anxin Wang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的探讨1992 - 2021年脑出血（ICH）发病率的时间趋势，以及不同年龄、性别和社会人口指数（SDI）水平的异质性。方法脑出血发病率数据取自《2021年全球疾病负担研究》。采用连接点回归计算平均年百分比变化（AAPC）。利用不平等斜率指数和浓度指数对健康不平等进行量化。应用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型估计净/局部漂移和年龄/时期/队列对脑出血发病率的影响。结果1992 - 2021年，全球ICH发病率从2471769例上升至3444338例，每10万人年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从59.60例下降至40.83例，AAPC为1.33 %，呈初降（1992 - 2014年）、后升（2014-2019年）、再降（2019-2021年）的非单调趋势。女性的下降速度快于男性，而SDI较高的国家下降速度更快。卫生不平等现象有所缓解，脑出血病例集中在SDI较高的国家。APC分析表明，在全球和5个SDI地区，发病率随着年龄的增长而上升，并且具有有利的时期/队列效应。男性的下降主要发生在老年人群中，而女性的下降主要发生在青壮年。结论1992 - 2021年全球脑出血发病率呈下降趋势。经济发达国家必须对因老龄化导致的脑出血病例上升保持警惕。对于男性，初级预防应该针对年轻人，而对于女性，应该针对老年人群。

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Temporal trends in the incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage from 1992 to 2021: An age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Objective

To explore the temporal trends of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) incidence from 1992 to 2021 and the heterogeneity across age groups, sexes, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels.

Methods

Data on ICH incidence were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression was utilized to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The slope index of inequality and concentration index were utilized to quantify the health inequality. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to estimate the net/local drifts and age/period/cohort effects on ICH incidence.

Results

From 1992 to 2021, ICH incidence increased from 2471,769 to 3444,338 cases worldwide, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) per 100,000 individuals decreased from 59.60 to 40.83 with an AAPC of 1.33 % and a non-monotonic tendency of initial decline (1992–2014), subsequent increase (2014–2019), and further decline (2019–2021). Females decreased faster than males, and countries with higher SDI experienced a quicker decline. Health inequalities have been relieved, and ICH cases cluster in higher SDI countries. The APC analysis indicates the rise in incidence with increasing age and favorable period/cohort effects globally and in five SDI regions. The decline in males primarily occurred in aged population, whereas for females, it was mainly in young and middle-aged adults.

Conclusion

There was a downward trend in global ICH incidence from 1992 to 2021. Economically developed countries must remain vigilant against the rise in ICH cases due to aging. For males, primary prevention should target the younger adults, whereas for females, it should target aged population.

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来源期刊

Ageing Research Reviews 医学-老年医学

CiteScore

19.80

自引率

2.30%

发文量

216

审稿时长

55 days

期刊介绍： With the rise in average human life expectancy, the impact of ageing and age-related diseases on our society has become increasingly significant. Ageing research is now a focal point for numerous laboratories, encompassing leaders in genetics, molecular and cellular biology, biochemistry, and behavior. Ageing Research Reviews (ARR) serves as a cornerstone in this field, addressing emerging trends. ARR aims to fill a substantial gap by providing critical reviews and viewpoints on evolving discoveries concerning the mechanisms of ageing and age-related diseases. The rapid progress in understanding the mechanisms controlling cellular proliferation, differentiation, and survival is unveiling new insights into the regulation of ageing. From telomerase to stem cells, and from energy to oxyradical metabolism, we are witnessing an exciting era in the multidisciplinary field of ageing research. The journal explores the cellular and molecular foundations of interventions that extend lifespan, such as caloric restriction. It identifies the underpinnings of manipulations that extend lifespan, shedding light on novel approaches for preventing age-related diseases. ARR publishes articles on focused topics selected from the expansive field of ageing research, with a particular emphasis on the cellular and molecular mechanisms of the aging process. This includes age-related diseases like cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders. The journal also covers applications of basic ageing research to lifespan extension and disease prevention, offering a comprehensive platform for advancing our understanding of this critical field.