Nutritionally adequate, healthy, and climate-friendly diets following the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023: an optimization study for Norway.

Background: Reducing red meat consumption is an effective tactic for decreasing environmental impact of diets while maintaining nutritional adequacy, healthiness, and overall consumer acceptability. Still, dietary change in favor of plant foods is a controversial climate mitigation measure, especially in the Nordic region where agri-food heritage is linked to ruminant husbandry.

Objective: In this study we aimed to explore sustainable diets for the Norwegian context by (1) investigating the environmental impacts of nutritionally optimized diets following the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023 (NNR2023), (2) estimating potential for environmental impact reduction across scenarios of meat and legume consumption, and (3) identifying nutritional challenges.

Methods: Quadratic optimization was employed to minimize departure from the average observed Norwegian diet while meeting nutrient, health, and carbon footprint constraints. The diet of Norwegian adults was estimated based on results from the national dietary survey Norkost 3. Global warming potential (GWP), freshwater and marine eutrophication, terrestrial acidification, water use, and transformation and use of land were calculated using data from the Norwegian Life Cycle Assessment Food Database version 01. Diets were optimized to meet NNR2023 nutrition and health recommendations for nutrients and food groups. Optimizations were first run without constraints on GWP, for three diet scenarios: (1) nutrients and health-based targets for food amounts (NNR2023), (2) nutrients and health-based targets for food amounts with ruminant meat ≥ observed intake (62 g/day) (Ruminant), and (3) nutrients and health-based targets for food amounts with legumes content ≥40 g/day (Legumes). Then, GWP constraints were applied in 5% increments until no solution was found. The optimal diet for each scenario was defined as the diet with the largest feasible reduction in GWP (NNR2023+/Ruminant+/Legumes+).

Results: Optimizing the diet to meet nutrient and health constraints alone resulted in a modest decrease in GWP (NNR2023); retaining ruminant meat consumption (Ruminant) impeded the reduction (-9% vs. 0%). Diets following NNR2023 nutrient and health constraints alone were feasible up until a 30% reduction in GWP (NNR2023+). A 35% reduction in GWP was achieved when legumes were added to the diet (Legumes+), while diets retaining 62 g of ruminant meat were not identified beyond a 15% reduction in GWP (Ruminant+). Sodium and selenium were the strongest limiting constraints in all scenarios. Diets with a 40% reduction in GWP were identified when nutrient constraints were lowered from the Recommended Intake to the Average Requirement (NNR2023+/Legumes+). Reductions in GWP coincided with reductions in all measured environmental indicators except marine eutrophication.

Conclusion: The NNR2023 guidelines outline diets that have generally lower environmental impacts than the average Norwegian diet, though outcomes depend on distribution of meat and legume consumption in the diet. Regardless of degree of environmental impact reduction, diets following NNR2023 guidelines will require significant dietary changes compared to observed intake, including an increase in consumption of fruits, vegetables, and grains, and a strong decrease in consumption of red meat, total meat, and discretionary foods. Preventing the model from removing any ruminant meat from the diet limited GWP reduction to 15% and induced considerable changes in intake of other food groups, especially a decrease in other types of meat.