多区域人口预测:一种统一的概率方法来模拟变化的组成部分。

IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, James Raymer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,我们扩展了Andrei Rogers及其同事在20世纪60年代和70年代开发的多区域队列组成人口预测模型,使其具有完全概率性。这些预测是根据对特定年龄、性别和区域的生育率、死亡率、区域间移徙、移民和移出的预测作出的。该方法是统一的,通过使用对数线性模型和双线性项的组合来预测变化的每个人口组成部分。这项研究通过提供一个灵活的统计建模框架,能够随着时间的推移结合高维的人口组成部分,为文献做出了贡献。这些模型还考虑了年龄、性别、地区和时间之间的相关性。其结果是一个一致和强大的建模平台,用于预测具有不确定性措施的次国家人口。我们应用该模型来预测澳大利亚八个州和地区的人口。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multiregional Population Forecasting: A Unifying Probabilistic Approach for Modelling the Components of Change.

In this article, we extend the multiregional cohort-component population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues in the 1960s and 1970s to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on forecasts of age-, sex- and region-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration. The approach is unified by forecasting each demographic component of change by using a combination of log-linear models with bilinear terms. This research contributes to the literature by providing a flexible statistical modelling framework capable of incorporating the high dimensionality of the demographic components over time. The models also account for correlations across age, sex, regions and time. The result is a consistent and robust modelling platform for forecasting subnational populations with measures of uncertainty. We apply the model to forecast population for eight states and territories in Australia.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.00%
发文量
44
期刊介绍: European Journal of Population addresses a broad public of researchers, policy makers and others concerned with population processes and their consequences. Its aim is to improve understanding of population phenomena by giving priority to work that contributes to the development of theory and method, and that spans the boundaries between demography and such disciplines as sociology, anthropology, economics, geography, history, political science, epidemiology and other sciences contributing to public health. The Journal is open to authors from all over the world, and its articles cover European and non-European countries (specifically including developing countries) alike.
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