Early budget impact analysis of AI to support the review of radiographic examinations for suspected fractures in NHS emergency departments (ED).

Objective: To develop an early budget impact analysis of and inform future research on the national adoption of a commercially available AI application to support clinicians reviewing radiographs for suspected fractures across NHS emergency departments in England.

Methods: A decision tree framework was coded to assess a change in outcomes for suspected fractures in adults when AI fracture detection was integrated into clinical workflow over a 1-year time horizon. Standard of care was the comparator scenario and the ground truth reference cases were characterised by radiology report findings. The effect of AI on assisting ED clinicians when detecting fractures was sourced from US literature. Data on resource use conditioned on the correct identification of a fracture in the ED was extracted from a London NHS trust. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for the influence of parameter uncertainty on results.

Results: In one year, an estimated 658,564 radiographs were performed in emergency departments across England for suspected wrist, ankle or hip fractures. The number of patients returning to the ED with a missed fracture was reduced by 21,674 cases and a reduction of 20, 916 unnecessary referrals to fracture clinics. The cost of current practice was estimated at £66,646,542 and £63,012,150 with the integration of AI. Overall, generating a return on investment of £3,634,392 to the NHS.

Conclusion: The adoption of AI in EDs across England has the potential to generate cost savings. However, additional evidence on radiograph review accuracy and subsequent resource use is required to further demonstrate this.