Potential impact of the time trend of fried food consumption on the cardiovascular disease burden in China†

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in China. Fried foods are a risk factor for increasing CVD and their consumption in China is rapidly rising. Evaluation of the impact of fried foods on the CVD burden has important implications for future public health and policy making. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of fried foods on the CVD burden. Methods: We estimated the temporal trends of fried food consumption from 1997 to 2011 using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We estimated CVD events attributed to fried food consumption using comparative risk assessment methods. We also projected fried food consumption and the related CVD burden from 2011 to 2031. Results: Fried food consumption continued to increase from 1997 to 2011, reaching 110.2 g per week in 2011. It is estimated that high consumption of fried foods is responsible for 3.4%, 2.3%, and 14.3% of the CVD, CHD, and stroke burden, accounting for 0.112 million CVD cases, 0.036 million CHD cases, and 0.243 million stroke cases, respectively. Notably, fried food consumption is projected to increase to 127.6 g per week by 2031. High consumption levels are projected to cause 0.239 million CVD cases, 0.078 million CHD cases, and 0.529 million stroke cases by 2031. Conclusions: The consumption of fried foods has continued to increase over time, which has an important impact on the burden of CVD in China. Dietary guidelines should continue to emphasize on decreasing the consumption of fried foods to reduce the CVD burden in China.