Non-Survival to Pension Age in Denmark and Sweden: A Sub-National Investigation

Mortality keeps improving even in the most developed countries. Deaths before senior age become more and more occasional and thus are increasingly considered unnecessary and perhaps even avoidable. Denmark belongs to the most developed countries of the world in terms of progress in lowering human mortality levels. Yet there is still much room for large improvements—compared to Sweden, the Danish population has almost the same survival profile up to age 50 but then there are striking differences in later ages. Between ages 50 and 65 about 10% of Danish males die while in Sweden this proportion is only about 7%. This paper explores the regularities of non-survival to pension age across Danish municipalities and compares them to ones in Sweden. The main focus of this exploration is identification of the spatial patterns based on the mortality characteristics of the population that are studied using the advanced spatial clustering algorithm. The methodological challenge resolved along the way is the construction of reliable life table estimates for the small municipal populations. The results suggest that the main reason for the observed gap between Danish and Swedish municipalities, especially for males, is the lagging behind development of the most deprived areas, which corresponds with the results on widening gaps along socioeconomic dimensions.