Unraveling the Enigma: Exploring the Impact of Migration Trajectories on Stable Settlement Intention Among Chinese Migrants

The settlement intention of migrants has become a prominent issue for both scholars and policymakers, forming an essential element of China's new urbanization strategy. However, an increasing number of scholars predominantly focus on how individual and contextual factors influence migrants' settlement intentions, often neglecting the multiple and shifting nature of migration, which may also shape their settlement intentions. Using data from 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study investigates the relationship between migration trajectories and migrants' settlement intentions, exploring how these trajectories differ in shaping settlement intentions across cohorts. Employing a multinomial logistic regression model, this study reveals that migrants originating from districts and county-level cities or moving to cities with lower housing prices are more likely to have stable settlement intentions. In addition, those following a “U” migration trajectory are more likely to possess stable settlement intentions, while those with a “UU” migration trajectory exhibit the opposing trend. Moreover, the negative impact of migration trajectory on migrants' stable settlement intentions diminishes considerably across cohorts. This study not only enhances our comprehension of the nature of migrants' settlement intentions by integrating the dimension of homeownership but also underscores the key role of structural factors and reveals the multiple and shifting nature of migration.