Scenario analysis of the environmental impacts of breeding structure change from the perspective of farming and breeding balance in Northeast China

This study uses prefecture-level city statistical data from China from 2000–2022 to measure the supply and demand of livestock manure nitrogen nutrients and calculates farmland livestock carrying capacity using the nitrogen nutrient balance method. We investigate nitrogen supply and demand and livestock carrying capacity in northeast China by comparing emissions from 2000–2022 over the past several decades. The poultry and livestock industry in northeast China has changed significantly over the past two decades: pigs are now the most bred animal and poultry production has increased dramatically. Regional livestock nitrogen emissions are influenced primarily by the size of the local livestock industry chain. Due to regional differences, each region has unique breeding structures. We also predict the anticipated situation in 2050 using the business-as-usual scenario. High-risk livestock carrying capacity areas will be concentrated in the northeast and southeast regions, with significantly increased risk indices, compared with those of 2022, particularly in Shenyang, Fushun, and Tieling. Therefore, promoting farming and breeding, improving livestock manure utilization, and returning manure to nearby farmlands are crucial for meeting agricultural green development goals.