海平面的突然上升和地球逐渐的极移揭示了21世纪永久的水文状态变化

IF 44.7 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI:10.1126/science.adq6529

Ki-Weon Seo, Dongryeol Ryu, Taehwan Jeon, Kookhyoun Youm, Jae-Seung Kim, Earthu H. Oh, Jianli Chen, James S. Famiglietti, Clark R. Wilson

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引用次数: 0

摘要

大气和海洋温度的升高已引起陆地水循环和陆地表面水通量（如降水和蒸发）的巨大变化，可能导致陆地蓄水量的突然变化。欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的再分析 v5（ERA5）土壤水分（SM）产品显示，21 世纪初土壤水分急剧减少。在 2000 年至 2002 年期间，土壤水分减少了约 1614 千兆吨，远大于格陵兰岛约 900 千兆吨的冰损失（2002-2006 年）。从 2003 年到 2016 年，土壤水分继续减少，又减少了 1,009 千兆吨。全球平均海平面上升（约 4.4 毫米）和地球极点移动（约 45 厘米）这两项独立观测结果都支持这种损耗。降水不足和稳定的蒸散作用很可能导致这一下降，截至2021年，SM尚未恢复，在目前的气候条件下，未来也不可能恢复。

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Abrupt sea level rise and Earth’s gradual pole shift reveal permanent hydrological regime changes in the 21st century

Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures have caused substantial changes in terrestrial water circulation and land surface water fluxes, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration, potentially leading to abrupt shifts in terrestrial water storage. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) soil moisture (SM) product reveals a sharp depletion during the early 21st century. During the period 2000 to 2002, soil moisture declined by approximately 1614 gigatonnes, much larger than Greenland’s ice loss of about 900 gigatonnes (2002–2006). From 2003 to 2016, SM depletion continued, with an additional 1009-gigatonne loss. This depletion is supported by two independent observations of global mean sea level rise (~4.4 millimeters) and Earth’s pole shift (~45 centimeters). Precipitation deficits and stable evapotranspiration likely caused this decline, and SM has not recovered as of 2021, with future recovery unlikely under present climate conditions.

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来源期刊

Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

61.10

自引率

0.90%

发文量

审稿时长

2.1 months

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