Enhancing nutrition availability through international trade: U.S. and global dairy exports to emerging markets

This study examines the importance of trade liberalization via U.S. free trade agreements (FTAs) to distribute nutritionally valuable foods to lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Focusing on dairy products that are rich in essential nutrients and linked to important health benefits, we construct 24 years of bilateral trade data (1998–2021) augmented with nutrient composition information. A structural gravity model is developed to quantify the nutrient availability within U.S. FTAs. Results indicate that while U.S. FTAs increased the value of dairy imports by 86 %, on average, they more than doubled the availability of dairy protein and key micronutrients. Second, trade increases among LMIC FTA partners were not due to trade diversion away from non-member suppliers. Rather, we find some evidence that LMICs increased dairy trade with both U.S. and non-U.S. export suppliers. Third, using population data, we translate FTA trade effects into gains in nutrient availability for consumers. As a percentage of recommended dietary allowance from all food sources, U.S. dairy exports to LMIC FTA partners contributed to an increase of 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points, on average, in the availability of calcium and vitamin B₁₂. Finally, the estimated gains in nutrient availability correspond to significant reductions in dairy trade costs over the study period (e.g. Mexico, −50 %). These findings highlight the importance of trade liberalization as a key mechanism to distribute essential nutrients to regions with insufficient availability through their own domestic production. They also underscore an underexplored avenue for policymakers to advance the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).