Policy Assessment of Japan's ‘Decarbonisation-Leading Regions’

Japan has set a decarbonisation goal in the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 46% compared with those in 2013 by 2030. To achieve this goal, the Japanese government established a regional decarbonisation roadmap in 2021. In pursuing the roadmap, 74 municipalities were appointed as Japan's decarbonisation-leading regions. In this study, we make the projection to clarify whether the goal will be met by performing the following steps. First, we classified the regions on the basis of their specific energy structure and examined their decarbonisation policies. Next, we performed a cluster analysis of their energy structure and energy-saving methods in the civil sector, residential sector, sectors outside the civil sector and transportation sector. The results of the analysis indicate that in terms of energy-use characteristics, the proportion of the municipalities selected is representative of Japan. However, we find that if the carbon neutrality plans of these regions are implemented and extended nationwide, the 2030 goal will not be met. Moreover, we found that within the civil sector, regions are more inclined to achieve carbon neutrality in business and public facility areas than in residential areas. This study urges Japan to be more aggressive in its global warming mitigation strategies and identifies residential areas as the most promising sector to put more effort into.