Population Growth and Decline in China: A Geographical Analysis, 1982–2020

Understanding historical population processes is crucial for interpreting current trends, forecasting future dynamics, and shaping regional and national development strategies. However, the historical trajectories and heterogeneous determinants of regional population growth and decline remain understudied. This study employs data from long-term national population censuses, diverse supplementary datasets, and regression models to reveal the historical dynamics and drivers of prefecture-level population growth and decline in China from 1982 to 2020. Our results disclosed the spread process of regional population decline in quantity and space, identified four major types and eight subtypes of population growth and decline trajectories by combining the regional population growth and decline status across every decade, delineated the distinct spatial patterns of these trajectories, and revealed the differentiated and evolving determinants of regions with population growth in the previous decade and those with population decline. Future trends of regional population growth and decline were predicted based on these analyses. These findings offer the following policy implications for addressing the challenges posed by widespread yet uneven regional population decline: adopting smart shrinkage strategies, enhancing economic and social resilience, and fostering higher-scale regional cooperation.