Jiajie Zhou , Qizhi Yang , Shuai Zhao , Longhe Sun , Ruiqi Li , Jie Wang , Liuhua Wang , Daorong Wang
{"title":"结直肠癌的演变景观:全球和区域负担、风险因素动态和未来情景(1990-2050年全球疾病负担)。","authors":"Jiajie Zhou , Qizhi Yang , Shuai Zhao , Longhe Sun , Ruiqi Li , Jie Wang , Liuhua Wang , Daorong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.arr.2025.102666","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Presently, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRC and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2021, aiming to guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, optimize healthcare resource allocation, and facilitate the rational management of burden of CRC.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Using data derived from the Global Burden of Disease database, we estimated the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC. The temporal trends of the age-standardized rate of CRC were quantified by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Deaths from CRC attributable to each risk factor that had evidence of causation with CRC were estimated. CRC's deaths and DALYs was forecast through 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Globally, between 1990 and 2021, the incident cases, death cases, and DALYs attributed to CRC have doubled, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) presented a slightly upward tendency, while the age-standardized death rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) exhibited a decreasing trend. From 1990–2021, the ASIR for males has an increased trend, while females presented a downward trend. The ASIR and ASDR of CRC were higher in high and high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) countries. The ASIR of CRC in 165 countries and territories showed escalating trend. Globally, for males and both sexes combined, diet low in whole grains was the leading risk factor for age-standardized deaths from CRC in 2021. However, among females, diet low in milk was the leading risk factor. We forecast that 2.18 million (1.53–2.94) individuals will death for CRC worldwide by 2050, and the DALYs achieve 41.7 million (29.9–55.4) by 2050.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The doubling of incidence counts and mortality cases and the rising ASIR in most countries indicates a significant burden of CRC. Authorities should devise suitable measures to address the increasing burdens, such as optimizing screening programs, enhancing awareness and screening efforts for males, and reducing exposure to modifiable risk factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55545,"journal":{"name":"Ageing Research Reviews","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102666"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evolving landscape of colorectal cancer: Global and regional burden, risk factor dynamics, and future scenarios (the Global Burden of Disease 1990–2050)\",\"authors\":\"Jiajie Zhou , Qizhi Yang , Shuai Zhao , Longhe Sun , Ruiqi Li , Jie Wang , Liuhua Wang , Daorong Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.arr.2025.102666\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Presently, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRC and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2021, aiming to guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, optimize healthcare resource allocation, and facilitate the rational management of burden of CRC.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Using data derived from the Global Burden of Disease database, we estimated the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC. The temporal trends of the age-standardized rate of CRC were quantified by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Deaths from CRC attributable to each risk factor that had evidence of causation with CRC were estimated. CRC's deaths and DALYs was forecast through 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Globally, between 1990 and 2021, the incident cases, death cases, and DALYs attributed to CRC have doubled, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) presented a slightly upward tendency, while the age-standardized death rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) exhibited a decreasing trend. From 1990–2021, the ASIR for males has an increased trend, while females presented a downward trend. The ASIR and ASDR of CRC were higher in high and high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) countries. The ASIR of CRC in 165 countries and territories showed escalating trend. Globally, for males and both sexes combined, diet low in whole grains was the leading risk factor for age-standardized deaths from CRC in 2021. However, among females, diet low in milk was the leading risk factor. We forecast that 2.18 million (1.53–2.94) individuals will death for CRC worldwide by 2050, and the DALYs achieve 41.7 million (29.9–55.4) by 2050.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The doubling of incidence counts and mortality cases and the rising ASIR in most countries indicates a significant burden of CRC. Authorities should devise suitable measures to address the increasing burdens, such as optimizing screening programs, enhancing awareness and screening efforts for males, and reducing exposure to modifiable risk factors.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":55545,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ageing Research Reviews\",\"volume\":\"104 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102666\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ageing Research Reviews\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568163725000121\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CELL BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ageing Research Reviews","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568163725000121","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CELL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolving landscape of colorectal cancer: Global and regional burden, risk factor dynamics, and future scenarios (the Global Burden of Disease 1990–2050)
Background
Presently, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRC and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2021, aiming to guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, optimize healthcare resource allocation, and facilitate the rational management of burden of CRC.
Methods
Using data derived from the Global Burden of Disease database, we estimated the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC. The temporal trends of the age-standardized rate of CRC were quantified by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Deaths from CRC attributable to each risk factor that had evidence of causation with CRC were estimated. CRC's deaths and DALYs was forecast through 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.
Results
Globally, between 1990 and 2021, the incident cases, death cases, and DALYs attributed to CRC have doubled, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) presented a slightly upward tendency, while the age-standardized death rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) exhibited a decreasing trend. From 1990–2021, the ASIR for males has an increased trend, while females presented a downward trend. The ASIR and ASDR of CRC were higher in high and high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) countries. The ASIR of CRC in 165 countries and territories showed escalating trend. Globally, for males and both sexes combined, diet low in whole grains was the leading risk factor for age-standardized deaths from CRC in 2021. However, among females, diet low in milk was the leading risk factor. We forecast that 2.18 million (1.53–2.94) individuals will death for CRC worldwide by 2050, and the DALYs achieve 41.7 million (29.9–55.4) by 2050.
Conclusion
The doubling of incidence counts and mortality cases and the rising ASIR in most countries indicates a significant burden of CRC. Authorities should devise suitable measures to address the increasing burdens, such as optimizing screening programs, enhancing awareness and screening efforts for males, and reducing exposure to modifiable risk factors.
期刊介绍:
With the rise in average human life expectancy, the impact of ageing and age-related diseases on our society has become increasingly significant. Ageing research is now a focal point for numerous laboratories, encompassing leaders in genetics, molecular and cellular biology, biochemistry, and behavior. Ageing Research Reviews (ARR) serves as a cornerstone in this field, addressing emerging trends.
ARR aims to fill a substantial gap by providing critical reviews and viewpoints on evolving discoveries concerning the mechanisms of ageing and age-related diseases. The rapid progress in understanding the mechanisms controlling cellular proliferation, differentiation, and survival is unveiling new insights into the regulation of ageing. From telomerase to stem cells, and from energy to oxyradical metabolism, we are witnessing an exciting era in the multidisciplinary field of ageing research.
The journal explores the cellular and molecular foundations of interventions that extend lifespan, such as caloric restriction. It identifies the underpinnings of manipulations that extend lifespan, shedding light on novel approaches for preventing age-related diseases. ARR publishes articles on focused topics selected from the expansive field of ageing research, with a particular emphasis on the cellular and molecular mechanisms of the aging process. This includes age-related diseases like cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders. The journal also covers applications of basic ageing research to lifespan extension and disease prevention, offering a comprehensive platform for advancing our understanding of this critical field.