Future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market prices and mitigation costs

Agricultural production costs represent less than half of total food prices for higher-income countries and will likely further decrease globally. Added-value components such as transport, processing, marketing and catering show increasing importance in food value chains, especially as countries undergo a nutrition transition towards more complex and industrial food systems. Here, using a combined statistical and process-based modelling framework, we derive and project the value-added component of food prices for 136 countries and 11 different food groups, for food-at-home and food-away-from-home. We identify the declining but differentiated producer share in consumer food prices across food products, and provide scenarios of future consumer prices under a business-as-usual as well as climate mitigation scenarios. Food price increases from policies targeting agricultural producers, such as greenhouse gas taxes, are not as stark when transmitted to consumers owing to higher value added in higher-income countries, while a pronounced effect remains in lower-income countries, even in coming decades. The future of food prices is uncertain yet key for food security and climate mitigation policies. This study estimates future food prices for 136 countries and 11 distinct food groups, showing that future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market dynamics and land-based mitigation policies, given the global transition towards more complex and industrial food systems.