到 2050 年减少全球塑料废物管理不善和温室气体排放的途径

IF 44.7 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI:10.1126/science.adr3837

A. Samuel Pottinger, Roland Geyer, Nivedita Biyani, Ciera C Martinez, Neil Nathan, Molly R Morse, Chao Liu, Shanying Hu, Magali de Bruyn, Carl Boettiger, Elijah Baker, Douglas J McCauley

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引用次数: 0

摘要

塑料生产和塑料污染会对我们的环境、环境正义和气候变化产生负面影响。利用详细的全球和地区塑料数据集以及社会经济数据，我们通过机器学习预测，如果不采取干预措施，到 2050 年，每年管理不善的塑料垃圾将增加近一倍，达到 1.21 亿吨（1 亿吨 - 1.39 亿吨，95% CI）。同期，塑料系统的温室气体年排放量预计将增长 37%，达到 3.35 Gt CO 2 当量（3.09 - 3.54 CO 2 e）。联合国塑料污染条约为重塑这些结果提供了一个独特的机会。我们模拟了八项候选条约政策，发现仅四项政策就可将管理不善的塑料废物减少 91%（86% - 98%），将与塑料相关的温室气体排放总量减少三分之一。

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Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

Plastic production and plastic pollution negatively affect our environment, environmental justice, and climate change. Using detailed global and regional plastics datasets coupled with socio-economic data, we employ machine learning to predict that, without intervention, annual mismanaged plastic waste will nearly double to 121 Mt (100 - 139 Mt 95% CI) by 2050. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic system are projected to grow by 37% to 3.35 Gt CO 2 equivalent (3.09 - 3.54 CO 2 e) over the same period. The United Nations plastic pollution treaty presents a unique opportunity to reshape these outcomes. We simulate eight candidate treaty policies and find that just four could together reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 91% (86% - 98%) and gross plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions by one third.

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来源期刊

Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

61.10

自引率

0.90%

发文量

审稿时长

2.1 months

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