基于蒙特卡洛的多灾害和高阶多米诺效应时空演化过程建模方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110532

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引用次数: 0

摘要

化学工业园区的多米诺骨牌效应是一种复杂的现象，泄漏、火灾和爆炸等事故可能同时或依次发生。多米诺骨牌事故的发展具有高度不确定性，因此很难预测此类事故的时空发展。本文提出了一个模型，旨在通过考虑临界热剂量和利用 Probit 模型评估热辐射和超压导致的事故升级来预测多米诺效应的演变。为了解决多米诺骨牌效应事故建模中与多装置、高阶和各种事故类型相关的复杂问题，该模型采用了蒙特卡罗模拟方法。模型验证和案例研究表明，这种方法在模拟由一系列初级事故引发的多米诺骨牌事故进展方面非常有效。这种方法可以预测潜在的事故链和危险装置的动态失效概率，包括确定可能失效的初始装置。从这项研究中获得的见解为预防和减轻化学事故中的多米诺效应提供了指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A Monte Carlo-based modeling method for the spatial-temporal evolution process of multi-hazard and higher-order domino effect

The domino effect in chemical industrial parks represents a complex phenomenon where accidents such as leaks, fires, and explosions can occur either simultaneously or in sequence. The progression of domino accidents is highly uncertain, making it difficult to anticipate the spatial-temporal development of such accidents. This paper presents a model that aims to forecast the evolution of domino effects by considering the critical thermal dose and utilizing the Probit model to assess the escalation of incidents caused by thermal radiation and overpressure. To tackle the complexities associated with multiple installations, high order, and various accident types in modeling domino effect accidents, the model incorporates Monte Carlo simulation methods. The model validation and case studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach in simulating the progression of domino accidents initiated by a range of primary accidents. This approach enables the prediction of potential accident chains and the dynamic failure probability of hazardous installations, including the identification of the initial installation likely to fail. The insights gained from this research offer guidance for the prevention and mitigation of the domino effect in chemical accidents.

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.