Modeling the Social Influence Effectiveness of Popular Weibo Events

Social networks are important for people to obtain information, make comments, and exchange opinions. The public opinion generated in social networks has a great impact on public life and value guidance, and the effect of public opinion is worth paying attention to and analyzing. Research on the influence of hot events can help us better understand the public attention and response to an event, and help industries and social organizations to judge market trends and predict future development direction. Social phenomena and trends reflected by hot events can be used as basic data and research objects for scientific research to promote the development and progress of the discipline. Aiming at social events in social networks, this paper analyzes the relevant user behavior data such as retweets, comments, likes, topic characteristics such as event duration, and other key characteristics and proposes an influence effectiveness analysis model for events, referred to as the caloric value model. This model is based on factors such as user interactivity, event activity, duration of the event, freshness of events,media attention, and the event heat decay ratio. It evaluates event heat, calculates the influence of events, identifies hot events with a high level of discussion, selects these hot events, and validates the findings through experiments. The model proposed in this paper has a good effect on the rationality and feasibility of heat evaluation.