Exploring rural futures through spatial-temporal migration balance changes in a North-Caucasian rural basin

A better understanding of spatial-temporal demographic changes in rural regions can contribute to envision potential rural futures and improve regional planning. This research aimed to analyse the migration balance and its spatial-temporal changes in a rural basin in the Russian Federation's North Caucasus District. The basin was divided into water functional zones to examine the environmental conditions and relate them to possible future anthropogenic pressures and threats to population well-being. Two migration balance indicators (on total population and working-age sector) were calculated in settlements to classify them as attractors, expellers or stable population entities in two census data (2014 and 2020). The spatial-temporal changes were assessed by testing two hypotheses: one related to population concentration and rural depopulation trends; the other focused on working-age migration and workforce availability. Moreover, a foresight tool employed migration balance indicators in 2020 to explore population trends and possible trajectories. Findings revealed that in this rural basin, a small number of settlements served as attractors in the upper functional zone where two urban centres are found, potentially intensifying soil erosion and pollution. In the middle and lower functional zones, most rural and small urban settlements showed unfavored migration balances, leading to population and workforce decline. Negative environmental factors like declining water quality and increased wind erosion could worsen this trend. The migration challenges by functional zones highlight the growing regional disparities. The combination of spatial demography with the basin approach provided improved information to foster collaboration in a shared basin and effectively address undesirable rural outcomes at regional level.