地球表面温度的 4.85 亿年历史。

IF 44.7 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI:10.1126/science.adk3705

Emily J. Judd, Jessica E. Tierney, Daniel J. Lunt, Isabel P. Montañez, Brian T. Huber, Scott L. Wing, Paul J. Valdes

{"title":"地球表面温度的 4.85 亿年历史。","authors":"Emily J. Judd, Jessica E. Tierney, Daniel J. Lunt, Isabel P. Montañez, Brian T. Huber, Scott L. Wing, Paul J. Valdes","doi":"10.1126/science.adk3705","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div >A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO<sub>2</sub> as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C.</div>","PeriodicalId":21678,"journal":{"name":"Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":44.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/science.adk3705","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature\",\"authors\":\"Emily J. Judd, Jessica E. Tierney, Daniel J. Lunt, Isabel P. Montañez, Brian T. Huber, Scott L. Wing, Paul J. Valdes\",\"doi\":\"10.1126/science.adk3705\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div >A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO<sub>2</sub> as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C.</div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21678,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":44.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/science.adk3705\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Science","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

全球平均地表温度（GMST）的长期记录为了解地球气候的动态极限以及温度与更广泛的地球系统之间的复杂反馈提供了重要信息。在此，我们介绍了 PhanDA，它是对过去 4.85 亿年全球平均表面温度的重建，是通过统计整合代用数据和气候模型模拟生成的。PhanDA 显示了一个很大的 GMST 范围，从 11° 到 36°C。将重建结果划分为不同的气候状态表明，更多的时间是在温暖而不是寒冷的气候条件下度过的，并揭示了每个气候状态下一致的纬度温度梯度。大气中二氧化碳（CO2）的浓度与全球变暖潜势之间有很强的相关性，这表明二氧化碳是控制新生代全球气候变迁的主要因素，并表明地球系统的明显敏感性为约 8°C。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature

查看原文本刊更多论文

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature

A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO₂ as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

61.10

自引率

0.90%

发文量

审稿时长

2.1 months

期刊介绍： Science is a leading outlet for scientific news, commentary, and cutting-edge research. Through its print and online incarnations, Science reaches an estimated worldwide readership of more than one million. Science’s authorship is global too, and its articles consistently rank among the world's most cited research. Science serves as a forum for discussion of important issues related to the advancement of science by publishing material on which a consensus has been reached as well as including the presentation of minority or conflicting points of view. Accordingly, all articles published in Science—including editorials, news and comment, and book reviews—are signed and reflect the individual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by AAAS or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated. Science seeks to publish those papers that are most influential in their fields or across fields and that will significantly advance scientific understanding. Selected papers should present novel and broadly important data, syntheses, or concepts. They should merit recognition by the wider scientific community and general public provided by publication in Science, beyond that provided by specialty journals. Science welcomes submissions from all fields of science and from any source. The editors are committed to the prompt evaluation and publication of submitted papers while upholding high standards that support reproducibility of published research. Science is published weekly; selected papers are published online ahead of print.