Modelling the dynamics of urbanization for urban sustainability in West Africa

The West African region, one of the largest urban agglomerations in Africa has over decades experienced rapid rate of urbanization. The urbanization processes have been associated with manifold environmental and socioeconomic challenges including inefficient urban infrastructure, unaffordable housing, poor sanitation and informal settlements. Urban scholars following the rise of urbanization and climate change in West Africa have advocated for policies and programmes towards the reduction of carbon footprints and sustainable human settlements, while emphasizing on the needs to plan for urban sustainability. Yet limited studies have so far analysed the dynamics of urbanization in West Africa, especially in relations to sustainability. Motivated by the evolving debates on urban sustainability, this study contributes to urban planning discourse, by exploring the dynamics of energy consumption, gross domestic product, employment levels and productivity in six countries in West Africa and demonstrate the implications for urban sustainability. Using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)-Mean Group (MG) model, we analysed annual data from 1991 to 2018 of Urban Population Growth, Gross Domestic Product, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse gas emissions. The study revealed variation across the selected countries in terms of rate of urbanization, productivity, and energy consumption. The results suggest the need for commonalities as well as differentiated approaches towards improving urban environmental quality for urban sustainability. Furthermore, while there is a need to promote green urban infrastructure, concerted efforts are required towards promoting sustainable urban environmental quality.