模拟埃希氏菌和运动对狗的影响

IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Complexity Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI:10.1155/2024/6878662
Folashade B. Agusto, Jaimie Drum
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引用次数: 0

摘要

Ehrlichia chaffeensis 是一种由美洲大蜱传播的蜱媒传染病。这种传染病发现于 20 世纪 70 年代,当时军犬从越南战争中归来。这种疾病在德国牧羊犬、杜宾犬、比利时马里诺犬和西伯利亚雪橇犬中的发病率极高。在这项研究中,我们建立了一个狗和蜱虫感染艾氏霍乱弧菌的数学模型,目的是了解狗从一个地方移动到另一个地方时移动对它们的影响。这可能是狗在市区散步,也可能是狗在山区远足。我们使用急性和慢性感染蜱虫的总和以及所有生命阶段感染蜱虫的总和作为响应函数,对三个地点之间有无移动进行了全局敏感性分析。对响应函数影响最大的参数是狗的疾病进展率、狗的慢性感染进展率、狗的康复率、狗的自然死亡率、急性和慢性感染狗的疾病诱发死亡率、狗的出生率、卵的成熟率、蜱的叮咬率、狗和蜱的传播概率、蜱的死亡率以及地点的承载能力。我们的模拟结果表明,在没有移动的情况下,狗和蜱的感染是局部性的,而在移动率最高的地点,狗和蜱的感染会在不同地点之间传播。此外,当在一个地点实施控制措施时,减少感染的控制措施的效果(涓流效应)会扩散到其他地点。在移动率最高的地点实施控制时,涓流效应最强。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Modeling the Effects of Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Movement on Dogs

Modeling the Effects of Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Movement on Dogs

Ehrlichia chaffeensis is a tick-borne infectious disease transmitted by Amblyomma americanum tick. This infectious disease was discovered in the 1970s when military dogs were returning from the Vietnam War. The disease was found to be extremely severe in German Shepherds, Doberman Pinschers, Belgium Malinois, and Siberian Huskies. In this study, we developed a mathematical model for dogs and ticks infected with Ehrlichia chaffeensis with the aim of understanding the impact of movement on dogs as they move from one location to another. This could be a dog taken on a walk in an urban area or on a hike in the mountains. We carried out a global sensitivity analysis with and without movement between three locations using as response functions the sum of acutely and chronically infected ticks and the sum of infected ticks in all life stages. The parameters with the most significant impact on the response functions are dogs disease progression rate, dogs chronic infection progression rate, dogs recovery rate, dogs natural death rate, acutely and chronically infected dogs disease-induced death rate, dogs birth rate, eggs maturation rates, tick biting rate, dogs and ticks transmission probabilities, ticks death rate, and the location carrying capacity. Our simulation results show that infection in dogs and ticks are localized in the absence of movement and spreads between locations with highest infection in locations with the highest rate movement. Also, the effect of the control measures which reduces infection trickles to other locations (trickling effect) when controls are implemented in a single location. The trickling effect is strongest when control is implemented in a location with the highest movement rate into it.

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来源期刊
Complexity
Complexity 综合性期刊-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
4.30%
发文量
595
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Complexity is a cross-disciplinary journal focusing on the rapidly expanding science of complex adaptive systems. The purpose of the journal is to advance the science of complexity. Articles may deal with such methodological themes as chaos, genetic algorithms, cellular automata, neural networks, and evolutionary game theory. Papers treating applications in any area of natural science or human endeavor are welcome, and especially encouraged are papers integrating conceptual themes and applications that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries. Complexity is not meant to serve as a forum for speculation and vague analogies between words like “chaos,” “self-organization,” and “emergence” that are often used in completely different ways in science and in daily life.
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