面包价格与海平面:为什么概率因果模型需要单调性

IF 1.1 1区 哲学 0 PHILOSOPHY
Vera Hoffmann-Kolss
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引用次数: 0

摘要

概率因果模型面临的一个主要挑战是如何将非因果概率依赖关系与真正的因果关系区分开来。为了完成这一任务,因果模型通常需要满足几个约束条件。两个突出的约束条件是因果马尔可夫条件和忠实性条件。然而,我们还需要其他约束条件。其中一个额外的约束条件是因果充分性条件,即模型不得遗漏所包含变量的任何直接共同原因。在本文中,我认为因果充分性条件是有问题的:(1)它与模型中的变量不得处于非因果必然依赖关系(如数学或概念关系,或用上位关系或基础关系描述的关系)的要求不相容;(2)它所预设的原始因果知识多于创建适当因果模型的实际需要;(3)如果只要求模型具有因果充分性,它们就无法处理变量之间偶然的概率关系,如索伯(Sober)关于英国面包价格与威尼斯海平面之间关系的例子。我给出了这种单调性条件的定义,并得出结论:因果模型应被要求是单调的,而不是因果充分的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bread prices and sea levels: why probabilistic causal models need to be monotonic

A key challenge for probabilistic causal models is to distinguish non-causal probabilistic dependencies from true causal relations. To accomplish this task, causal models are usually required to satisfy several constraints. Two prominent constraints are the causal Markov condition and the faithfulness condition. However, other constraints are also needed. One of these additional constraints is the causal sufficiency condition, which states that models must not omit any direct common causes of the variables they contain. In this paper, I argue that the causal sufficiency condition is problematic: (1) it is incompatible with the requirement that the variables in a model must not stand in non-causal necessary dependence relations, such as mathematical or conceptual relations, or relations described in terms of supervenience or grounding, (2) it presupposes more causal knowledge as primitive than is actually needed to create adequate causal models, and (3) if models are only required to be causally sufficient, they cannot deal with cases where variables are probabilistically related by accident, such as Sober’s example of the relationship between bread prices in England and the sea level in Venice. I show that these problems can be avoided if causal models are required to be monotonic in the following sense: the causal relations occurring in a model M would not disappear if further variables were added to M. I give a definition of this monotonicity condition and conclude that causal models should be required to be monotonic rather than causally sufficient.

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来源期刊
PHILOSOPHICAL STUDIES
PHILOSOPHICAL STUDIES PHILOSOPHY-
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
7.70%
发文量
127
期刊介绍: Philosophical Studies was founded in 1950 by Herbert Feigl and Wilfrid Sellars to provide a periodical dedicated to work in analytic philosophy. The journal remains devoted to the publication of papers in exclusively analytic philosophy. Papers applying formal techniques to philosophical problems are welcome. The principal aim is to publish articles that are models of clarity and precision in dealing with significant philosophical issues. It is intended that readers of the journal will be kept abreast of the central issues and problems of contemporary analytic philosophy. Double-blind review procedure The journal follows a double-blind reviewing procedure. Authors are therefore requested to place their name and affiliation on a separate page. Self-identifying citations and references in the article text should either be avoided or left blank when manuscripts are first submitted. Authors are responsible for reinserting self-identifying citations and references when manuscripts are prepared for final submission.
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