An optimized crop–livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China

The contribution of crop and livestock production to the exceedance of the planetary boundary for phosphorus (P) in China is still unclear, despite the country’s well-known issues with P fertilizer overuse and P-related water pollution. Using coupled models at sub-basin scales we estimate that livestock production increased the consumption of P fertilizer fivefold and exacerbated P losses twofold from 1980 to 2017. At present, China’s crop–livestock system is responsible for exceeding what is considered a ‘just’ threshold for fertilizer P use by 30% (ranging from 17% to 68%) and a ‘safe’ water quality threshold by 45% (ranging from 31% to 74%) in 25 sub-basins in China. Improving the crop–livestock system will keep all sub-basins within safe water quality and just multigenerational limits for P in 2050. Sustainable phosphorus (P) management is central to food security and a healthy environment. This study quantifies the impacts of crop–livestock production on P use and losses at the sub-basin scale in China and evaluates the exceedance of a ‘safe’ and ‘just’ P planetary boundary.