封锁前后的旅行行为:2022 年上海案例研究

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
Cheng-Jie Jin , Jiaxin Li , Chenyang Wu , Dawei Li , Rui Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年 4 月 1 日至 5 月 31 日,为应对 COVID-19 的快速传播,上海实施了全面封锁,以保护易感人群。本文旨在全面评估此次封锁的影响。本文收集了 2022 年 3 月和 6 月的交通数据,包括四个典型路口的车辆流量和地铁乘客量。同时还采用了其他重要指标,包括 COVID-19 案例、百度指数和上海证券交易所指数。结果显示(1) 在 3 月和 6 月,除大医院附近的路口外,平日与周末的交通流量比均高于大流行前的观测值,这意味着在这两个时期休闲出行显著下降。(2) 3 月份交通流量的变化主要是由一些与 COVID-19 相关的重要事件驱动的,而 6 月份的交通流量则呈现出一种更为自发和逐步恢复的模式。(3) 确诊病例对 3 月份的交通流量有显著影响,但没有发现确诊病例的时滞。在 6 月份,確診個案對交通流量的影響並不顯著。(4) 在此期间可以观察到从公共交通向私人交通的转移,但上海地铁乘客的恢复比例高于本研究中的大多数其他城市,这表明在疫情后时期增强公众对公共交通的信心非常重要。这些发现有助于完善未来可能出现的大流行措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The travel behaviors before and after lockdown: Case study on Shanghai, 2022

From April 1 to May 31, 2022, Shanghai implemented a full lockdown in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19 to protect the vulnerable population. This paper aims to comprehensively assess the impact of this lockdown. Traffic data for March and June of 2022 were collected, including the vehicular traffic volumes from four typical intersections and metro ridership. Other important indicators, including COVID-19 cases, Baidu Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, were also employed. The results show that: (1) In both March and June, except for the intersection near the major hospital, the ratios between the weekday and weekend traffic volumes were higher than those observed before the pandemic, which implies a significant drop in leisure trips during these periods. (2) The evolution of traffic volume in March was largely driven by some important COVID-19-related events, while the traffic volume in June showed a more spontaneous and stepwise recovery pattern. (3) The confirmed cases had a significant impact on the traffic volume in March, but the time lag of the confirmed cases was not found. The impact of confirmed cases on traffic volume in June was not significant. (4) The transfer from public transport to private ones could be observed during this period, but the recovery proportion of Shanghai metro ridership is higher than most other cities examined in this study, suggesting the importance of enhancing public confidence for public transport in the post-pandemic period. These findings can aid in refining potential pandemic measures for future scenarios.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.00%
发文量
222
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