Exploring the instability in the food security due to nitrogen fertilizer regulatory policy

The nitrogen regulatory policy (NRP) solution is introduced as a mitigation measure against environmental nitrogen losses and keeps food production in the Safe Operating Space of the Nitrogen Planetary Boundary. Meanwhile, scientific research shows that steps taken to reduce environmental harm can increase the unpredictability of calorie production from crops. This study sought to investigate the impact of NRP solutions on the level of risk of accessibility to calorie sources from domestic production, the variations in calorie sources by livestock and non-livestock diet components, and the responses of different dietary preferences, namely, poor, medium, and rich livestock protein diets, against NRP solutions in the Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran. We developed the aggregate household food security index (AHFSI) and combined it with outputs of crop simulation model to examine how changes in dietary energy supplies under three NRP scenarios—low, moderate, and high nitrogen fertilizer application—affect the stability of three regional dietary preferences. The comparison of NRP scenarios movements realized that increases (or decreases) in nitrogen fertilizer rates contradicted the stability in AHFSI. Additionally, a one-unit change in the average calories from non-livestock sources, such as wheat and potatoes, results in greater fluctuations in the standard deviations of produced calories compared to changes in meat and dairy production. We proposed that in order to prevent adverse effects of NRP solutions on food security, mitigation strategies addressing the NRP solution should be structured based on (i) regional heterogeneities, (ii) type of crops, that is, food and feed crops, (iii) the range of nitrogen rates movement; (iv) and the socioeconomic background related to dietary preferences or economic deciles of food expenditure.