Technical and economic modelling of last-mile transport: A case for Brazil

In response to the escalating demands of urban logistics and the environmental impacts of last-mile deliveries in cities, this study assesses the transition to electric vehicles (EV) in the last-mile delivery transportation sector. We developed a methodology to project last-mile fleets and assess whether electrification considering a scrappage policy makes economic sense. This method utilizes socio-economic, geographic, and technical data to assess annual delivery volumes, travel distances, total ownership costs, and breakeven analysis for diesel and electric vehicles, focusing on Brazilian urban centers. Results show that in 2030, in all urban densities, EV have lower operating costs, and they are the more economical choice for all cities or lifespans by 2035. EVs stand out, particularly with extended vehicle lifespans and increased delivery frequencies. Our findings provide a versatile method for assessing the technical and economic feasibility of electric vehicles across diverse demographic areas.