评估中国苹果出口的效率和潜力

IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Complexity Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI:10.1155/2024/7816792
Biao Ke, Qiangqiang Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究阐明了影响中国苹果贸易的因素、其效率以及增加收入的机会。本研究采用随机前沿引力模型对中国苹果出口数据进行分析,涵盖 1997 年至 2022 年期间的 38 个重要贸易伙伴。研究结果表明,中国及其贸易伙伴的经济增长极大地促进了苹果出口量,GDP 增长与出口流量之间呈正相关关系。研究还强调了地理距离对出口的阻碍作用,并揭示了进口国人均国内生产总值与出口效率之间复杂的负相关关系,从而揭示了贸易动态的细微差别。此外,研究还发现,中国货币升值在通过降低交易成本提高出口效率方面发挥了至关重要的作用。同时,进口国农业用地的增加带来了竞争挑战,对出口表现产生了负面影响。地理邻近性和基础设施特征,如共同边界和缺乏海港,被认为是影响出口效率的重要因素。分析揭示了各国尚未开发的巨大出口潜力,为市场拓展提供了战略途径。为了优化中国的苹果出口战略,建议政策制定者考虑货币管理,谈判贸易协定以减轻距离和人均 GDP 的影响,并瞄准潜力巨大的未开发市场,从而促进中国苹果出口行业的可持续增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the Efficiency and Potential of China’s Apple Exports

This study elucidates the factors impacting China’s apple trade, its efficiency, and opportunities for increased revenue. This study adopts a stochastic frontier gravity model on China’s apple exports data, covering the period from 1997 to 2022 across 38 significant trading partners. The finding demonstrates that the economic growth of China and its trading partners substantially boosts apple export volumes, with a positive correlation between GDP growth and export flows. The research also highlights the deterrent effect of geographical distance on exports and reveals a complex negative relationship between the per capita GDP of importing nations and export efficiency, shedding light on the nuanced nature of trade dynamics. Furthermore, the study finds that the appreciation of China’s currency plays a crucial role in enhancing export efficiency by lowering transaction costs. Meanwhile, increased agricultural land in importing countries presents competitive challenges, impacting export performance negatively. Geographical proximity and infrastructural features, such as shared borders and lack of access to seaport, are identified as significant factors in export efficiency. The analysis unveils considerable untapped export potential in various countries, suggesting a strategic avenue for market expansion. To optimize China’s apple export strategy, policymakers are advised to consider currency management, negotiate trade agreements that mitigate distance and per capita GDP effects, and target markets with high untapped potential, thereby facilitating sustainable growth in China’s apple export sector.

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来源期刊
Complexity
Complexity 综合性期刊-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
4.30%
发文量
595
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Complexity is a cross-disciplinary journal focusing on the rapidly expanding science of complex adaptive systems. The purpose of the journal is to advance the science of complexity. Articles may deal with such methodological themes as chaos, genetic algorithms, cellular automata, neural networks, and evolutionary game theory. Papers treating applications in any area of natural science or human endeavor are welcome, and especially encouraged are papers integrating conceptual themes and applications that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries. Complexity is not meant to serve as a forum for speculation and vague analogies between words like “chaos,” “self-organization,” and “emergence” that are often used in completely different ways in science and in daily life.
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