增强航空公司收益管理可用性控制对预测误差的稳健性

IF 1.1 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Tiago Gonçalves, Bernardo Almada-Lobo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

传统的收益管理系统是在每一票价需求独立的假设下建立的。票价调整理论是一种调整票价的方法,它允许继续使用优化算法和座位库存控制方法,即使转向依赖需求。由于准确的需求预测是这一方法的关键输入,因此可以合理地假设,在存在不确定性的情况下,该方法可能会产生次优性能。特别是在 COVID-19 期间和之后,航空公司在需求预测方面面临着巨大的挑战。这项研究首先证明了票价调整理论在完美条件下的理论优势。其次,它缺乏对预测误差的稳健性。在温和的假设条件下复制收益管理系统的蒙特卡罗模拟表明,预测误差为(\pm 20%\)可能会促使票价调整理论所采用的利润率必须调整(-10\%\)。此外,基于树状结构的机器学习模型强调预测误差是主要因素,而偏差的作用甚至比方差更关键。一项样本外研究表明,预测模型稳定地优于票价调整理论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Enhancing robustness to forecast errors in availability control for airline revenue management

Enhancing robustness to forecast errors in availability control for airline revenue management

Traditional revenue management systems are built under the assumption of independent demand per fare. The fare adjustment theory is a methodology to adjust fares that allows for the continued use of optimization algorithms and seat inventory control methods, even with the shift toward dependent demand. Since accurate demand forecasts are a key input to this methodology, it is reasonable to assume that for a scenario with uncertainties it may deliver suboptimal performance. Particularly, during and after COVID-19, airlines faced striking challenges in demand forecasting. This study demonstrates, firstly, the theoretical dominance of the fare adjustment theory under perfect conditions. Secondly, it lacks robustness to forecast errors. A Monte Carlo simulation replicating a revenue management system under mild assumptions indicates that a forecast error of \(\pm 20\%\) can potentially prompt a necessity to adjust the margin employed in the fare adjustment theory by \(-10\%\). Moreover, a tree-based machine learning model highlights the forecast error as the predominant factor, with bias playing an even more pivotal role than variance. An out-of-sample study indicates that the predictive model steadily outperforms the fare adjustment theory.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
18.80%
发文量
26
期刊介绍: The?Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management?serves the community of researchers and practitioners dedicated to improving understanding through insight and real life situations. Each article emphasizes meaningful answers to problems whether cutting edge science or real solutions. The journal places an emphasis disseminating the best articles from the best minds and benchmarked businesses within the field of Revenue Management and Pricing.Revenue management (RM) also known as Yield Management (YM) is a management activity that marries the diverse disciplines of operations research/management science analytics economics human resource management software development marketing economics e-commerce consumer behaviour and consulting to manage demand for a firm's products or services with the goal of profit maximisation. From a practitioner standpoint RM encompasses a range of activities related to demand management including pricing segmentation capacity and inventory allocation demand modelling and business process management.Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management?aims to:formulate and disseminate a body of knowledge called 'RM and pricing' to practitioners educators researchers and students;provide an international forum for a wide range of practical theoretical and applied research in the fields of RM and pricing;represent a multi-disciplinary set of views on key and emerging issues in RM and pricing;include a cross-section of methodologies and viewpoints on research including quantitative and qualitative approaches case studies and empirical and theoretical studies;encourage greater understanding and linkage between the fields of study related to revenue management and pricing;to publish new and original ideas on research policy and managementencourage and engage with professional communities to adopt the Journal as the place of knowledge excellence i.e. INFORMS Revenue Management & Pricing section AGIFORS and Revenue Management Society and Revenue Management and Pricing International Ltd.Published six times a year?Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management?publishes a wide range of peer-reviewed practice papers research articles and professional briefings written by industry experts - including:Practice papers - addressing the issues facing practitioners in industry and consultancyApplied research papers - from leading institutions on all areas of research of interest to practitioners and the implications for practiceCase studies - focusing on the real-life challenges and problems faced by major corporations how they were approached and what was learnedModels and theories - practical models and theories which are being used in revenue managementThoughts - assessment of the key issues new trends and future ideas by leading experts and practitionersApprentice - the publication of tomorrows ideas by students of todayBook/conference reviews - reviewing leading conferences and major new books on RM and pricingThe Journal is essential reading for senior professionals in private and public sector organisations and academic observers in universities and business schools - including:Pricing AnalystsRevenue ManagersHeads of Revenue ManagementHeads of Yield ManagementDirectors of PricingHeads of MarketingChief Operating OfficersCommercial DirectorsDirectors of SalesDirectors of OperationsHeads of ResearchPricing ConsultantsProfessorsLecturers
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