Acute muscle wasting rate assessment and long-term mortality in critically ill trauma.

Background and objectives: To evaluate the relationship between acute muscle wasting rate and long-term mortality in critically ill trauma.

Methods and study design: A single-center, retrospective study was conducted in critically ill trauma. Patients with Computed Tomography scans including the L3 vertebra within 24 hours and at 1 week after trauma were recruited. Acute muscle wasting rate was defined as the mean percent variation per day of skeletal muscle index in the first week after trauma. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were performed to determine whether acute muscle wasting rate could help predict hospital malnutrition and 1-year mortality.

Results: Skeletal muscle index was 49.3±10.7 cm2/m2 at baseline and decreased to 45.1±9.6 cm2/m2 (p<0.001) at 1 week and 39.8±10.8cm2/m2 (p<0.001) at 1 month after trauma. A sustained decrease of skeletal muscle index was observed from baseline up to 6 months (33.7±8.4cm2/m2, p<0.001) post trauma, and lasted for 1 year (37.7±5.6cm2/m2, p=0.004). Logistic regression analysis showed that acute muscle wasting rate was an independent risk factor for hospital malnutrition and 1-year mortality. Every 1% absolute increase of acute muscle wasting rate was associated with 1.82-fold higher odds of 1-year mortality in critically ill trauma. The area under curve of acute muscle wasting rate was 0.813 for hospital malnutrition prediction and 0.715 for 1-year mortality prediction.

Conclusions: Acute muscle wasting rate was independently associated with higher 1-year mortality and hospital malnutrition in critically ill trauma.