商业用地变化与增长过程--1995-2020 年葡萄牙里斯本零售地点评估

IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES
Rui Colaço, João de Abreu e Silva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

土地利用建模对于了解未来土地利用和变化动态至关重要。自 20 世纪 70 年代细胞自动机(CA)被引入地理学以来,使用细胞自动机对土地利用和变化进行分析的文献屡见不鲜。在本文中,以前对里斯本商业结构进行分析时所采用的统计分区--城市街区--被用作细胞自动机的单元。多层感知器(MLP)对这些单元在 1995 年至 2020 年间的过渡潜力进行建模,并考虑了街道中心性、地铁发展和其他城市增长代用指标的影响。结果证实,商业增长和变化可以作为街道中心度的函数进行模拟,将本地整合和选择作为 CA 的驱动力可能有助于改善对商业增长和变化的预测。此外,CA 结果还强化了街道中心性对街道商业的积极影响,尤其是在与交通和便利设施相结合的情况下。虽然这些结果已经可以为规划实践和政策制定提供参考,但本文提出的框架也可用于模拟未来的商业用地使用,从而帮助规划者和政策制定者为变革做好准备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020

Land use modelling is essential to understanding future land use and change dynamics. Analyses of land use and change using Cellular Automata (CA) have been frequent in the literature since the latter were introduced to geography in the 1970s. In this paper, the statistical subsections – city blocks – of a previous analysis of Lisbon's commercial structure are used as the cells of a CA. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models the transition potential of those cells between 1995 and 2020, considering the impact of street centrality, subway development and other proxies of urban growth. The results confirm that commercial growth and change can be simulated as a function of street centrality and that using Local integration and Choice as drivers of a CA may help improve predictions of commercial growth and change. Moreover, the CA results reinforce that street centrality positively affects street commerce, especially when combined with access to transit and amenities. While these results can already inform planning practice and policymaking, the framework presented in this paper may be replicated to simulate ​future commercial land use, thus helping planners and policymakers prepare for change.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.50
自引率
4.90%
发文量
45
审稿时长
65 days
期刊介绍: Journal of Urban Management (JUM) is the Official Journal of Zhejiang University and the Chinese Association of Urban Management, an international, peer-reviewed open access journal covering planning, administering, regulating, and governing urban complexity. JUM has its two-fold aims set to integrate the studies across fields in urban planning and management, as well as to provide a more holistic perspective on problem solving. 1) Explore innovative management skills for taming thorny problems that arise with global urbanization 2) Provide a platform to deal with urban affairs whose solutions must be looked at from an interdisciplinary perspective.
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