加密货币波动的各向同性

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Aiman Hairudin, Azhar Mohamad
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们采用连续小波变换、最大重叠离散小波变换和重标度范围来研究比特币、以太坊、Tether 和美元币的分形波动性和长程依赖性。我们的数据集包括从 2017 年 1 月到 2022 年 10 月的每日价格,囊括了疫情爆发前和疫情爆发后的时代。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,Tether 在整个时间频率范围内的整体波动性最小。与 Tether 通过代币发行和交易反应影响市场平衡的成熟度相反,美元币表现出短暂的动荡。在疫情过后的样本中,两种稳定币都表现出均值回归,美元币的效率略高。相反,投资代币则因散户交易者和长期基本面机构而显示出持续的集群。虽然两种代币都显示了多分形波动性,但以太坊比比特币显示了更多的自相似性本质。因此,没有证据表明以太坊真正复制了比特币,因为两者之间的政策相关事件不同,两者的回报序列走势也不一致。条件动态表明,除 Tether 外,所有加密货币都受到 COVID-19 大流行转变和后续宏观经济新闻的影响。稳定币的无条件波动率表现出零均值误差,与投资代币表现出的年度周期相反。分形几何表明,投资代币模拟的是一维线条,而稳定币模拟的是二维平面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The isotropy of cryptocurrency volatility

We examine the fractal volatility and long-range dependence of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether and USD Coin by employing the continuous wavelet transform, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform and rescaled range. Our dataset consists of daily prices spanning from January 2017 through to October 2022, encapsulating pre- and post-epidemic eras. Generally, our findings suggest that Tether presents the least overall volatility throughout the time-frequency spectrum. USD Coin demonstrates ephemeral turbulence, contrary to Tether's maturity in influencing market equilibrium through token issuance and trade responses. In the post-epidemic sample, both stablecoins indicate mean reversion, with USD Coin showing marginally better efficiency. Conversely, investment tokens display persistent clusters due to retail traders and long-term fundamental institutions. Although both tokens illustrate multifractal volatility, Ethereum unveils more essence of self-similarity than Bitcoin. Hence, there is no evidence that Ethereum truly duplicates Bitcoin since policy-related events differ between them, as both return series move incongruously. Conditional dynamics signify that all cryptocurrencies, except Tether, were affected by the pandemic transition of COVID-19 and subsequent macroeconomic news. The unconditional volatility of stablecoins evinces zero-mean errors, antithetical to investment tokens exhibiting annual cycles. The fractal geometry suggests that investment tokens simulate one-dimensional lines, whereas stablecoins mimic two-dimensional planes.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
6.90%
发文量
143
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