A global transition to flash droughts under climate change

IF 45.8 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI:10.1126/science.abn6301

Xing Yuan, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, Jason A. Otkin

引用次数: 35

Abstract

Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash droughts have become the new normal because slow droughts may also increase. In this study, we show that drought intensification rates have sped up over subseasonal time scales and that there has been a transition toward more flash droughts over 74% of the global regions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events during the past 64 years. The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change. In the future, the transition is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.

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气候变化下全球向暴旱的转变

世界各地经常发生山洪暴发的干旱，其发生速度之快对干旱监测和预报能力提出了挑战。然而，对于闪电干旱是否已成为新常态尚未达成共识，因为缓慢干旱也可能增加。在这项研究中，我们发现在亚季节时间尺度上，干旱加剧的速度加快了，在过去 64 年中，政府间气候变化专门委员会极端事件特别报告所确定的全球 74% 的地区出现了向更多山洪暴发干旱过渡的趋势。这种转变与人为气候变化造成的蒸散和降水不足异常现象扩大有关。预计在未来，这种转变将扩大到大多数陆地地区，在高排放情景下，这种转变将进一步加剧。这些发现强调了在未来气候变暖的情况下适应更快发生的干旱的紧迫性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

61.10

自引率

0.90%

发文量

审稿时长

2.1 months

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