Econometric assessment of the effects of COVID-19 outbreaks on U.S. meat production and plant utilization with plant-level data

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of the COVID-19 disruption on U.S. meatpacking production. We employ a confidential plant-level meatpacking plant data set from USDA that gives daily livestock (cattle, swine, broilers) slaughter by individual firms and their individual plants. We found a larger underutilization rate of processing capacity for larger-sized beef and pork plants during the peak of plant slowdowns in April-May 2020, while no such relationship was found for broiler plants. In our panel analysis of beef packing plants, we found that higher COVID-19 infection rates in a county were associated with greater plant disruptions, but that plants appear to have been able to adjust relatively quickly to these disruptions. Our empirical analysis suggests a beef plant distribution with fewer large plants could have meant smaller shocks to production during the initial surge of COVID-19 disruptions. However, beef plant size was significantly less important to maximizing utilization of processing capacity after the initial surge.