RECESIONES DE MÉXICO EN LOS ALBORES DEL SIGLO XXI

Q4 Social Sciences
Pablo Mejía Reyes, Miguel Ángel Díaz Carreño, Reyna Vergara González
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

This paper uses an episodic approach to contrast the causes, transmission mechanisms, and policy responses involved in Mexico's two recent major recessions in 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 and explain their different characteristics. Both recessions were derived from speculative bubbles in specific sectors in the United States and engendered analogous episodes in the Mexican economy as a result of a high degree of integration. Even so, the former was longer due to exogenous shocks (terrorist attacks and China's accession to the World Trade Organization (wto)), which exacerbated plummeting manufactures, but the latter more profound due to the effects of the credit collapse. This evidence attests to the limitations of domestic economic policy and the Mexican economy's acute vulnerability to external shocks.

21世纪初墨西哥的经济衰退
本文采用情景分析方法,对比了墨西哥2001-2003年和2008-2009年两次重大衰退的原因、传导机制和政策应对措施,并解释了它们的不同特征。这两次衰退都源于美国特定行业的投机泡沫,而墨西哥经济由于高度一体化也出现了类似的情况。即便如此,由于外生冲击(恐怖袭击和中国加入世界贸易组织(wto))加剧了制造业的暴跌,前者的时间更长,但后者由于信贷崩溃的影响而更加深刻。这一证据证明了国内经济政策的局限性和墨西哥经济对外部冲击的严重脆弱性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Problemas del Desarrollo
Problemas del Desarrollo Social Sciences-Development
CiteScore
0.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: roblemas del Desarrollo. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, publicación trimestral, es el órgano oficial de divulgación del Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), el que atento a la propuesta de sus fundadores, recibe todas las interpretaciones teóricas que con rigor científico, pretendan analizar las diferentes dificultades planteadas por el desarrollo económico, a fin de generar crítica, refutación y reconocer desacuerdos entre predicciones como cualquier teoría científica es capaz de hacerlo.
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